The (effective) end of the second Bush term

I’ve thought for a while that the thing that shipwrecked President Bush’s second term was the decision to kick it off with an attempt to reform Social Security.  It was brave, because this badly needs to be done (I’ve never talked to anyone in my generation or younger who thinks we’re going to get Social Security when we reach retirement—there seems to be widespread agreement that the program’s going to collapse before we get the chance), but it was also politically stupid, because it gave the Democrats all sorts of chances to beat him up.  There simply wasn’t the political will to address the situation, or any sort of constituency already in place for the effort.  If he’d spent a couple years building that constituency and creating a sense of urgency while he worked on other things, it might have gone somewhere; as it was, all it did was burn all his political capital and leave him defenseless when Katrina hit and Iraq went into reverse.In light of that, it was interesting to note last week that the President appears to agree with me, telling Cal Thomas that if he could do one thing over, he would have given up Social Security and gone to work on immigration reform instead.  As he told Thomas, border security is a real and significant issue, as is the fact that “a system that is so broken that humans become contraband is a system that really needs to be re-examined”; while the political will wasn’t there to address the looming issue with Social Security, “because generally legislative bodies don´t react until the crisis is upon us,” even when they know it’s coming.It’s a good interview of the sympathetic sort, and worth your time to read.

Barack Obama and the Senate Democrats: already on the rocks?

So suggests Jennifer Rubin, drawing on a piece in Politico on the Burris fiasco, and she identifies two main causes.  One is the President-Elect’s maladroit handling of the situation; according to Politico, Democrats in the Senate are

complaining that he kept his distance from the Burris controversy then jumped in at the end to claim the mantle of peacemaker—much as he did in the flap over Sen. Joe Lieberman’s support of Republican John McCain’s presidential bid.

As Rubin points out, letting his party’s Senate caucus hang itself without intervening may work fine for a presidential candidate (especially when one’s opponent obligingly jumps into the situation), but it’s a really bad idea once you’re elected president.  Not only will it be necessary for him “to resolve food fights before they spatter him,” but even if they don’t spatter him, the Senate still won’t respond well to being mishandled—particularly if that mishandling results in the Senate looking bad.  If he’s unwilling to spend any of his political capital to help Senate Democrats out, they aren’t likely to play along when he wants them to compromise, or to stick their necks out for him.All of this, however, can be put down to inexperience, and that’s something that can be fixed; as long as President Obama proves a quick enough learner (and he’s certainly bright enough), this shouldn’t be a long-term handicap for his administration.  The other problem Rubin identifies, however, is considerably more serious:

the Senate Democrats don’t much like or respect Reid. Republicans might cackle that the Democrats are just coming around to this realization. Nevertheless, there is a difference between a Senate leader of the opposite party, whose job it is to annoy, frustrate and criticize the White House, and a Senate leader of the same party, whose job it is to build coalitions to pass the President’s agenda and grease the skids for legislation. Reid seems spectacularly ill-suited to fill the latter role. But he’s the chosen leader, and unless more calamities befall the Senate, that’s the position in which Reid will remain. The Senate Democrats’ success (and many of their members’ re-election prospects) will depend as will, to a great extent, the Obama legislative agenda, on the extent of Reid’s finesse. Good luck, fellas.

I have been quite skeptical—some might say, extremely skeptical—about Barack Obama and the kind of president he will prove to be; but the upside to his sketchy record and short political career (which constitute one of my main reasons for skepticism) is that, combined with his impressive natural gifts, there is a substantial possibility that I’ve misread him, and that he’ll prove to be a significantly more effective president than I expected.  (Based on his first round of appointments, he’s certainly bidding fair to be a different president than I expected.)  The same, however, cannot be said of Harry Reid; he’s been doing this long enough that he’s not going to surprise anybody—what you see is what you get.  There may not be any greater problem for the Democrats in 2009-10 than that.Update:  David Broder sees some additional reasons for concern in this affair.

Rod Blagojevich: a template for future scandals?

Given Barack Obama’s thorough immersion in the Chicago machine, and the number of other simmering issues around Democratic politicians such as Bill Richardson and Charles Rangel, quite possibly.  Of course, since these will be Democratic scandals, the lemming media (aka the Democratic Party PR department) won’t feel the need to shove them down our collective throat as they did with the likes of Mark Foley and Larry Craig; rather, they’ll try to keep these all as quiet as they can and play them down as much as possible.  Democratic scandals are isolated incidents; only Republican scandals reveal a “worrisome pattern of conduct.”  That’s the rule, from the LM’s point of view.  Never mind that the whole Democratic approach to politics is to increase the power of government, which is only going to feed and broaden opportunities for political corruption.  Now, I’m certainly not claiming any kind of moral superiority for the GOP here, merely trying to make the point that one can’t do the same for the Democrats either; if memory serves, the last four presidents have all come in promising a more ethical administration, and while I do think W.’s administration managed a better record that way than his predecessors, that’s not to say they did a good job.  The truth is, whenever money and power are in play, some people are going to bend morally, including a few in truly alarming ways, and some will break off altogether.  The content of your principles will always come in second to the content of your character; if your character is such that you violate your principles, it doesn’t really matter much in the end what those principles were.  That said, I do think the Baseball Crank has a point worth considering about the logical consequences of a big-government philosophy:

Contemporary liberal/progressive ideology stresses, at every turn, that government officials should be given an ever-increasing share of public money to control and disperse, and an ever-increasing role in telling people and businesses how they can use the money and property they are left with. Government officials are, we are to believe, better able to make the ‘right’ decisions about who gets what and how businesses are permitted to operate. . . . In practice, no matter which system is used, it ends up being a short step from believing you have the right and wisdom to direct other people’s property to more deserving recipients and better uses to believing that you are one of the more deserving recipients, and a short trip from telling business how to do its business to telling it who to do business with based on the desire to reward yourself and your friends. The root of money in politics, after all, is politics in money.

In sum, the more you do to increase the amount of money government has to play with, and the degree of power it has over that money, the more you do to provide both opportunity and incentive for corruption.  The apotheosis of this would be the political machine, the entrenched political system based on government money, such as the Democrats in Chicago or Louisiana, or the Republicans in Alaska.  Given that our new president was the political creation of such a machine and has spent his entire political career closely associated with it (and has pulled key staffers from it, including his chief of staff), and given that he and the congressional majority are committed to increasing both the amount of money government has to play with and the degree of power it has over that money, it seems likely that whatever you think of Barack Obama’s personal integrity, there is good reason not to be sanguine about the integrity of his administration.  I suspect that Rod Blagojevich and Bill Richardson will prove to be not isolated incidents, but harbingers of things to come.

Landing a 747 on the QE2

That’s about what Barack Obama is trying to do with his sweeping set of legislative proposals to stimulate the economy, as David Brooks recounts.  The problem isn’t content (I think Brooks is right to call this “daring and impressive stuff”); rather,

The problem is overload. . . .  His staff will be searching for the White House restrooms, and they will have to make billion-dollar decisions by the hour. He is asking Congress to behave and submit in a way it never has. He has picked policies that are phenomenally hard to implement, let alone in weeks. The conventional advice for presidents is: focus your energies on a few big things. Obama just blew the doors off that one.Maybe Obama can pull this off, but I have my worries. By this time next year, he’ll either be a great president or a broken one.

We knew the President-Elect is a gambler, but this is something else; to be specific, as Jennifer Rubin says, it’s “hubris squared.”  If he goes ahead with this, I’ll be rooting for him, but . . . well, Congress will be Congress, and I’m not at all sanguine.

Nancy Pelosi: the anti-accountability Speaker

This probably shouldn’t have surprised me, but it did, and disappointed me as well:  Nancy Pelosi has proposed rules changes to reverse the House reforms which were put in place as part of the Contract with America, reforms which

were designed to open up to public scrutiny what had become under this decades-long Democrat majority a dangerously secretive House legislative process. The Republican reform of the way the House did business included opening committee meetings to the public and media, making Congress actually subject to federal law, term limits for committee chairmen ending decades-long committee fiefdoms, truth in budgeting, elimination of the committee proxy vote, authorization of a House audit, specific requirements for blanket rules waivers, and guarantees to the then-Democrat minority party to offer amendments to pieces of legislation.

It would seem that Speaker Pelosi doesn’t want the House GOP to be able to hold her caucus accountable for their actions and decisions, and doesn’t want the public to be able to keep track of what they’re doing; and she certainly doesn’t want the House GOP to have any more input into legislation than she absolutely has to allow them.  Sauce for the goose apparently isn’t sauce for the gander, in her book.  Human Events’ Connie Hair may well be right to conclude,

Pelosi’s proposals are so draconian, and will so polarize the Capitol, that any thought President-elect Obama has of bipartisan cooperation will be rendered impossible before he even takes office.

HT:  The Anchoress

The global-warming hoax and the better environmental path

courtesy of Harold Ambler in HuffPo (which is nowhere I would have expected to see global warming called “the biggest whopper ever sold to the public in the history of humankind,” but there you go).  He does a nice job of exposing the baloney “science” underlying global-warming claims (including a point about the limited ability CO2 has to absorb heat); perhaps more importantly, he also points out that bowing to global-warming hysteria would misdirect our environmental efforts and do considerable damage to the world economy—which would not only increase human suffering, it would also further damage the global environment by moving the world collectively back toward more primitive, and dirtier, technologies for energy generation.One of my fellow debaters in high school used to say, “I’m pro-environment, but anti-environmentalist.”  Issues like this make me think he was right.HT:  Bill Roberts

In defense of conservative government

Contra the triumphalism of many liberals—for whatever reason, the Democratic Party in the US has much of the same “Natural Governing Party” view of itself as Canada’s Liberal Party, though it’s spent far less of the past century in power than the Grits—and somewhat despite the ways in which the years in the driver’s seat have pulled the GOP away from its conservative principles, the three decades (give or take) since the Reagan Revolution have seen some major substantive conservative successes and achievements which have brought significant benefits to this country.  Matthew Continetti has a useful brief rundown of some accomplishments of which conservatives can be proud, including welfare reform and decreases in drug use and violent crime.There is one accomplishment he lists, though, which strikes me as possibly double-edged:

In 2002, President Bush named Philip Mangano executive director of the U.S. Interagency Council on Homelessness. Mangano has spent the last six years pointing out that the way to reduce homelessness is to give people homes. Experts call this the “housing first” strategy. It works. The most recent data show that the number of chronically homeless declined by 30 percent between 2005 and 2007.

One has to wonder, how much of that was only possible because of subprime mortgates?

When you have to laugh to keep from crying

be grateful Dave Barry still has his column. His “Year in Review” column from this past Sunday is a classic; of course, with so much material to work with, it ought to be. For a taste, here’s the first part of his entry for January,

which begins, as it does every four years, with presidential contenders swarming into Iowa and expressing sincerely feigned interest in corn. The Iowa caucuses produce two surprises:

  • On the Republican side, the winner is Mike Huckabee, folksy former governor of Arkansas, or possibly Oklahoma, who vows to remain in the race until he gets a commentator gig with Fox. His win deals a severe blow to Mitt Romney and his bid to become the first president of the android persuasion. Not competing in Iowa are Rudy Giuliani, whose strategy is to stay out of the race until he is mathematically eliminated, and John McCain, who entered the caucus date incorrectly into his 1996 Palm Pilot.
  • On the Democratic side, the surprise winner is Barack Obama, who is running for president on a long and impressive record of running for president. A mesmerizing speaker, Obama electrifies voters with his exciting new ideas for change, although people have trouble remembering exactly what these ideas are because they are so darned mesmerized. Some people become so excited that they actually pass out. These are members of the press corps.

Obama’s victory comes at the expense of former front-runner Hillary Clinton, who fails to ignite voter passion despite a rip-snorter of a stump speech in which she recites, without notes, all 17 points of her plan to streamline tuition-loan applications.

An unintended consequence of socializing medicine

In the latest issue of Forbes, Peter Huber points out the hidden cost of efforts to cut prescription-drug costs: the US is currently the only major market supporting research into new drugs. Government efforts to bring down drug costs will no doubt make existing drugs cheaper; but they will also choke off the flow of new drugs, because the money needed to finance the research and development behind them will no longer be there.This points to the flaw in the reasoning of those who point to Canada and say, “Why can’t we do that? It works for them.” The fact is, their system only works as well as it does because of the US, which helps keep their costs down and their waiting lists more tolerable by treating many of their patients, and because the US’ open market effectively subsidizes their drug costs. It will be interesting to see, if the Democrats get their way and move the American health-care system hard left, what the other unintended consequences are for health care in Canada, and Mexico, and elsewhere in the world. I have a hunch they won’t be pretty.

The Washington Post and the liberal double standard

My heartfelt thanks to Paul Hinderaker for posting this classic letter to the editor from the Washington Post, from a chap named Martin Carr:

I’ve got to stop reading the Post. The Dec. 17 front-page fluff piece on Caroline Kennedy [Friends Say Kennedy Has Long Wanted Public Role] was nauseating. You devoted more than 1,200 words to the subject but none that addressed why she is qualified to take on the role of a U.S. Senator. Her maiden name—and I loved the part about how she has now abandoned her married name—is her only “qualification,” and a dubious one at that.What really irritated me was the paragraph about how her cousin thinks she’d be great because she’s a mom and the Senate needs more such real people. Hmmm. . . . Seems to me we just had the “realest” person I can ever remember running for vice president—a mother of five who got involved in politics because she didn’t like the way things were happening in her home town—and she was excoriated by The Post and other media outlets for being inexperienced and uninformed.Caroline Kennedy’s qualifications are nil, and I’m ashamed that The Post is pretending that she has some. Have you lost all sense of editorial balance and real journalism?

I have continued to be amazed at the way in which utterly unfounded and ridiculous slurs against Sarah Palin have been disseminated and believed for no other reason than that people dislike her party affiliation. Here, the Post has given us the flip side of that. And the MSM wonders why they have no credibility . . .