I could put up a scorecard on the first presidential debate and tell you who I thought won and why, but there doesn’t seem to be a lot of point to that; in the first place, there are scads of people doing that already, and in the second place, the only thing that really matters is what the large bloc of undecided voters thought—and I’m definitely not in that category.There were, however, a couple things that occurred to me that might be worth mentioning. The first is that the real effect of these debates is in the takeaway moments; the big ones, of course, are the major gaffes and the knockout blows, and there weren’t any of those in this debate either way, but there will still be moments that stick in people’s minds. For my money, the ones from this debate will favor John McCain:
So let me get this right. We sit down with Ahmadinejad, and he says, “We’re going to wipe Israel off the face of the Earth,” and we say, “No, you’re not”? Oh, please.
(thanks to Jennifer Rubin for the text; followed, as Noam Scheiber noted, by Barack Obama letting it drop)
“You don’t do that. You don’t say that out loud.” (re: Sen. Obama’s suggestion that we should strike our enemies in Pakistan without the knowledge of the Pakistani government)“I’ve got a bracelet, too.”“John is right/Sen. McCain is right.”
On that score, I think the long-term effects of this debate will favor Sen. McCain, whatever the instant reactions might be. The other thing that occurred to me is that eight years ago, one of the things that seemed to hurt Al Gore in the debates was that he couldn’t find a consistent approach against George W. Bush—he was different every time, unlike Gov. Bush. Looking at the two candidates, I think Sen. McCain found an approach and a tone that will work for him, that he’ll be able to maintain across the debates; I’m not so sure that’s true of Sen. Obama, and neither is Byron York, at least in one key respect:
Obama was undeniably, and surprisingly, deferential to a man who in the past Obama has said “doesn’t get it.” . . .Here’s a prediction: The next time McCain and Obama meet in debate, on October 7 in Nashville, start a drinking game in which you take a big swig every time Obama says, “John is absolutely right.” I’ll bet you get to the end of the debate without ever lifting a glass.
I’ll bet York is absolutely right; but if he is, if we do in fact see a significantly different approach from Sen. Obama in the next debate (and I would argue that changing that would necessitate/create a significantly different approach), then that will have a negative effect on the Obama campaign as well.The bottom line here, I think, is that Sen. McCain put Sen. Obama back on his heels, in a reactive position, for most of the debate; I think Sen. Obama handled that pretty well, I think he was an effective counterpuncher in most instances—but I also think that if you get put in that position, you either have to get yourself back on the offensive, which he couldn’t do, or counterpunch effectively every time, or it weakens you. I don’t know what the immediate popular reaction will be, but for the long term, I think the Obama campaign has been weakened, at least a little, by this debate.