A clear-eyed view of the Middle East

courtesy of one of the best observers out there, Reuel Marc Gerecht. Short form: the world out there looks rather different than you’ve probably gathered from the media. The irony of the Democratic Party position on the GWOT (we supported Afghanistan, but not Iraq) is that it’s led to all sorts of assertions that Bush lied to get us into Iraq, that it’s a quagmire, etc., but given the administration a free pass on Afghanistan—and yet, we’re over the hump in Iraq, clearly winning, and have dealt al’Qaeda a heavy body blow there, while we’re losing in Afghanistan, may wind up losing Pakistan as a consequence, and will almost certainly be fighting an actual war up there long after Baghdad is no scarier a duty station than Pusan. Of perhaps greater significance, this administration has never faced up to the immense problem of Saudi Arabia. It may well be that they were hoping to get Iraq stabilized as a trustworthy ally first—an understandable strategy, if so, and a possibility Gerecht doesn’t consider—but probably not; and even if it was, given the time Iraq has taken (and was always going to take), it still wasn’t a good idea in the end.

It’s a bit early yet for a post-mortem on this presidency’s foreign policy, but as we begin to think about that question, the good news is that the grand move for which the administration has been pilloried, the invasion of Iraq, is ending up a great accomplishment. The bad news is, with regard to the Arab/Muslim world as a whole, it’s been their only real accomplishment. Still, on the whole, I agree with Gerecht’s take on this: “Iraq and the war on terror will likely save the president’s legacy in the Middle East.”