I was interested to see, a couple days ago, that John McCain had caught Barack Obama in the Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll, making up a seven-point deficit in a week, and almost caught him in the Newsweek poll. The latter was particularly interesting since it was that poll last month that showed Sen. Obama with a 15-point lead; now, it has him up just three points. I’m not sure what real significance there might be to all this (especially as today’s Rasmussen poll has Obama back up a few points); I know there are folks out there working carefully to mine every last nugget out of every twitch in the polls, but for my part, I think there’s only two things we can say with any real certainty:
It’s still too early to know anything for sure.
Even when it isn’t, we still know less than we think we do.
The only poll that matters, after all, is the one our various state governments will jointly conduct on the first Tuesday in November. Until then, I suspect all the other polls we take are more likely to give us anti-knowledge than knowledge, unless somebody really fouls up. I realize we aren’t going to stop polling, but I think the best favor we can do ourselves is not to take the results too seriously.
Oh, and Sen. McCain, if you happen to be reading: pick Sarah Palin. Thank you and good night.