There’s a very good chance of it—check out Michael J. Totten’s excellent roundup for the details. I know a few folks over there, and I can testify to the truth of what he and others are saying: among people 40 and under (which is to say, those who’ve spent at least their whole adult life under the Khomeinist regime) there is no trust of the government whatsoever, only pent-up rage and frustration. Indeed, so great is the disenchantment with their Islamist rulers that there’s a widely-held sentiment that “Islam is not the solution, it is the problem.” It really is entirely possible that in stealing this election for Ahmadinejad, Ali Khamenei and the mullahs have taken that one step too far that will blow the entire country open, and themselves clean out of power (and quite possibly out of other things as well, like breathing).
Which is why our government’s reaction—essentially, “The election was stolen, but we’ll work with the Ahmadinejad government anyway”—was so mind-numbingly stupid. You’ll notice I said “our government,” not “the Obama administration,” and there’s good reason for that; I think Barack Obama’s instincts on Iran are atrocious, and I’m sure he’s not helping matters, but I have no real faith that anyone else would be doing any better. . . . Well, John McCain mightbe if he had the chance, because he’s stubborn enough that he might actually be able to make foreign policy independent of the bureaucrats in the State Department, but I’m not at all sure of that; and the folks at State have a deeply-entrenched mindset that says “work with the government that’s in place, no matter what.” I’m not sure if it’s a reaction against US involvement in the Ngo assassination and the Allende coup or what, but our government is ridiculously good at ignoring potentially pro-US opposition movements in favor of continuing to deal with anti-US tyrants. (And don’t give me Iraq—it took us three presidents, a decade and a half, two invasions, a major terrorist attack and a minor-league cold war to decide we really couldn’t live with Saddam Hussein after all.) I truly hope we wise up this time; there’s an oppressed nation out there that could really use our help, and a government we’d be far better off without.