There are a lot of folks raising the concern with Gov. Palin that, as a newcomer to national politics, she’s likely to make mistakes, and if she does, she’ll be hammered for them by the liberal media and end up a drag on the ticket. Jonah Goldberg put it this way:
I’ve been thinking about it and I think the bottom line on Palin is pretty simple. If she does a good job at the convention and survives about three weeks of serious media scrutiny—no horrible gaffes, no unforgivable I-don’t-knows to gotchya questions (fair and unfair), no botched hostile interviews—she will emerge as the single most inspired VP pick in modern memory and she will give the Democrats migraines for a long time to come, assuming there are no terrible skeletons we don’t know about. But, if she screws up in the next three weeks, gives the press and the late night comedians sufficient fodder to Quayelize her, she’ll be seen as anything from a liability to an outright horrible pick. That’s it.
For my part, I’d been agreeing with this analysis—confident that Gov. Palin will do well, but still in agreement with the consequences if she doesn’t. Now, however, I’m not so sure. Think about it: why did Dan Quayle get Quayled? George W. Bush didn’t see a similar media reaction bury him, and he and the English language have a considerably tenser relationship. I think the answer is that it wasn’t only Democrats who thought Quayle was a lightweight and not worthy of his position: Republicans didn’t either. When Bentsen hit him with the “you’re no Jack Kennedy” right cross and he went down for the count, his own party believed he belonged on the mat. That’s what was fatal to him. With W., that didn’t happen, and so he won two terms in the White House even as every comedian in the nation painted him as an ape in a dunce cap who couldn’t spell his own name if you spotted him the “B”and the “u.”This is, I think, relevant to our evaluation of Sarah Palin. Consider that unlike Sen. Quayle, she has evoked a deep and impassioned positive response from national Republicans; Jonah Goldberg (again) is representative on this:
Whatever else you want to say about Palin, the undeniable fact is that she has generated staggering enthusiasm among Republicans. Every few minutes I get another email like this:
Jonah,
Three days ago, I was telling my fiance that I might stay home in November. I could never vote for Obama, and there were things McCain could do (such as a VP pick) that would prevent me from voting for him.Well, I did it. Today I made my first ever political contribution, and it was to the McCain-PALIN campaign. I’m sold on Palin. And since he picked her, I’m now sold on McCain too.Sincerely,
[name withheld]
This is profoundly significant, because it means that if she does put her foot in it and give the media the opportunity to label her a lightweight, out of her depth—I’ll be surprised if she does, but even the best of us do it at the worst of times—Republican voters aren’t going to buy the line. Instead, we’ll defend her against it to anyone who will listen, and some people will. Would a gaffe or two on her part deflate the campaign somewhat? Sure, just as Sen. Obama’s have deflated his somewhat. As long as she keeps her cool, though, I just don’t see it knocking her or the ticket as a whole off their stride.
Out of the gate the Democrats came swinging at Palin as expected. Yes, they made her look foolish, inept, inexperienced and even a little like a “back water hill billy”. But honestly, did it surprise anyone in the least?
I believe that the Republicans were counting on utilizing the convention to spring board a better perception of Palin, but I’m not sure that it is going to work. Not because Ms. Palin isn’t capable, smart or talented, but because Hurricane Gustav is going to destroy any message coming out of the Republican convention.
Which is a shame, because without a real national spot light, we are just going to see them replay that spot over and over again – where she asks what a Vice President does (to be honest, I would like to know too). I don’t think we will see redemption until the vice presidential debates.
How she would sell on the national stage was always the risk with her selection, so none of this is particularly surprising. By the way McCain, one heck of a good pick, it really is game changing and it makes both candidate choices historic.
Your first paragraph, yes, I expected.
Your second: don’t count on it. If anything, Gustav will probably wind up helping: “Look how much better the Republican governor of LA handled it than the Democratic governor did! (And did you notice he’s a minority?)” And with Gustav having weakened, and with these rumors stirring up interest, there will be a lot of people watching Gov. Palin’s acceptance speech tomorrow night.
As for your third, that bewilders me a little; how anyone watching that and remembering that she’s trying to deflect the question could see that as anything other than her being snarky, I’m not sure. (Especially since, by Constitution and statute, the VP only has two duties: preside over the Senate and attend the National Security Council. The rest is “whatever the President wants.”) It was just her way of saying, “I already have a real, important job to do.” She knew she was being seriously considered, but she didn’t want anyone else to know.
All in all, it should be an interesting two months.