In a fascinating article on RealClearPolitics, Sean Trende performs a thorough statistical analysis of the following proposition:
In 1994, Democrats failed to pass a healthcare bill, and they lost their majorities. Ergo, if Democrats fail to pass a healthcare bill in 2009, they will be at serious risk of losing their majorities in 2010, so to save their majorities, they should make certain above all else to get something passed.
This is a popular theme in the leftist blogosphere at the moment; but after analyzing it, Trende concludes it’s the exact backwards of the truth.
The 1994 elections weren’t caused by Democrats not supporting Clinton enough. They were caused by Democrats supporting him too much. Democrats who support President Obama more than their districts allow risk suffering a similar fate in 2010, and there are enough of them to cost the Democrats their majority.
As for President Obama, he needs to remember that the failure of Clintoncare didn’t mark the destruction of Clinton’s Presidency. In fact, it marked its rejuvenation. It set that Administration back on the centrist track that saw him leave office with 60%+ approval ratings. I don’t know whether America is center-right or center-left, but I do know that whatever the answer, “center” deserves to be in “all caps” font. The President and his party would do better to remember this.