Never mind the polls, he’s nothing of the sort. This sums up why:
Put bluntly, President Obama has hitched his wagon to ObamaPelosiCare. Barring a major foreign-policy catastrophe (which is certainly possible; I’m still somewhat surprised we got no major attacks last year), and maybe not even then, it’s hard to imagine a scenario for 2012 in which his health care bill is popular and he himself is not—and at this point, that’s the only scenario under which a Romney victory is at all plausible. The fact of the matter is, however hard Gov. Romney tries to argue that his plan in Massachusetts was fundamentally different than the Democrats’ national plan, he just has no case; they both come straight from the Teddy Kennedy playbook.
Now, in all fairness to Gov. Romney, the field has shifted somewhat on health care in the last few years; as Stephen Spruiell points out, it wasn’t all that long ago that even the Heritage Foundation supported individual mandates for health insurance, something which is now universally opposed on the Right; Orrin Hatch even submitted a health care bill in the Senate which took that approach. The problem for Gov. Romney is, he took his cue from that and signed a health care bill into law—and now that his bill hasn’t reduced costs in Massachusetts (or helped much of anything else, really), and now that the political center has shifted to leave his accomplishment firmly on the political Left, he’s stuck with it. It’s possible he may be able to find a way to deal with that and put himself back within the conservative mainstream; but until he does that, he cannot with any intelligence be called the GOP frontrunner or anything close to it. As of now, the only thing one can reasonably call his presidential hopes is a mirage.